Is WoW hitting a plateau?
by Shawn Schuster 
Sep 11th 2008 at 3:00PM
Filed under: World of Warcraft, Fantasy, Business models, Expansions, MMO industry, Opinion, Academic, Education
Seems like a silly question with the imminent release of their second expansion just within our grasp, but over at Dailygame.net, they've speculated a bit on when that plateau might finally hit World of Warcraft. According to this article, based on information from MMOGchart.com and warcraftrealms.com, the rise in WoW's subscription numbers has traditionally peaked around the holiday seasons and expansion releases. This should come as no surprise to anyone, but it also points out that we're not seeing as gradual an increase in subscriptions throughout each peak season. The last sentence of the article sums it all up fairly well: "If at the end of 2009 WoW's total subscription numbers are less than 10 percent higher than they were when 2009 started, I will submit that WoW will have officially entered its plateau phase. But even if that transpires, and if after four to five years WoW has declined and leveled-off into a steady state of a mere three or four million worldwide subscribers, it will still be a cash cow."
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
george said on 3:24PM 9-11-2008
WoW got boring, Im heading to WAR :) See everyone there :D
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Justin said on 4:13PM 9-11-2008
It doesn't surprise me that WoW is leveling off. I almost doubt that it's Wrath sales will be as good as BC at this point. At least that's how it would be appear based on the people I know. Most are headed to WAR. Not because WoW is a bad game, just got stale and my circle of friends don't feel that Wrath adds much worthwhile.
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rihahn said on 5:09PM 9-11-2008
Two words: Market Saturation
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hihi said on 5:33PM 9-11-2008
If WOW got boring, so will WAR.... It is evolutionary but not revoutionary.
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ScytheNoire said on 7:27PM 9-11-2008
Revolutionary doesn't mean it's a good game though. Evolutionary evolves off of what is already known to be successful, but adds more and fixes problems.
Evolutionary is better in almost all regards.
WoW wasn't Revolutionary, it was Evolutionary, and it seems to of done pretty well for itself.
Cray said on 9:05PM 9-11-2008
I agree with Rihahn, the market is officially saturated now with comparable MMOs. Quite few gaming studios have a foot in the MMO market and they are not making it any easier for Blizzard.
This is a good thing, because it will only raise the quality of the games.
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Winterblink said on 7:36AM 9-12-2008
The market isn't really "saturated" anymore in the conventional sense. It's more of a design saturation than a product volume one.
WoW = successful
Therefore to duplicate that success a game must become more like WoW to appeal to the same audience.
Or at least that's the logic being applied. It's flawed in many ways, yet companies are out there applying it to their game designs. The result is a dead experience that never reaches a critical mass of user interest.
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Angel said on 6:09PM 9-12-2008
Indeed! Everything is beginning to turn the same shade of brown... we need some fresh and interesting green!
Aceral said on 9:33AM 9-23-2008
I don't mind if people leave wow (in fact I think I would prefer it) as long as enough people stay to ensure that it remains worthwhile for Blizzard to continue bringing out content :)
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