The fine print of a Fallout MMO
Filed under: Sci-fi, Business models, Game mechanics, MMO industry, Opinion, Academic
According to Interplay's agreement with Bethesda, there are a few stipulations when it comes to their retention of the IP for an MMO. For instance, they need to raise $30 million and begin development of the game by April, 2009. Even if they were able to raise that much based on investor faith in the wildly-successful Fallout name, where would they get the rest of the money? $30 million, an MMO does not make, and that's exactly what this article is about. Will Bethesda end up retaining the IP through fine print complications and actually make a better MMO than Interplay ever could? Check out Daedren's complete argument, including the facts as we know them today.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
David Fisher said on 12:59PM 11-06-2008
I always have a hard time figuring out the numbers personally on MMOs. I guess it's because good information is hard to come by. The way I calculate it Blizzard must pull in over 2 Billion a year on WoW subscriptions alone ($180/year/subscriber*11 Million subscribers + ~$100 for game box and both expansions).
Yet obviously not all can reach these numbers and it makes it hard for there to be a 'middle class' MMO. Many either have numbers far short of 1M, or they have 10M+.
Still, even at 500,000 constant subscribers, at $15/month ($180/year) they'd see $90M in one year income from that alone. I'm unsure of how much they take home from the $50 box, but if it was $25 each even then that's another $12.5M. For a company with a proven IP line, who isn't a startup, has proven employees/experience/managers... it doesn't seem that raising $30M would be that big of a deal for a product that has a proven monetization and could have revenue in excess of 300% of investment in one year, shooting for a really low number of subscribers.
Then again, in this economy... who knows.
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Skypp said on 1:53PM 11-06-2008
The only way I will ever play a Fallout MMO is if Bethesda makes it. Sorry Interplay, but your track record and your talent has flew out the window lately.
Interplay is gonna leach off the success of Bethesda's game, and people are going to go into an MMO fallout expecting Fallout 3 in an MMO. It'll sell a few off the shelves off name alone, then die slowly over a period of 9 months or so.
You want to prove to people you can do it? Put out some good games with your new dev teams first. Prove that you're up to the task of sinking millions and millions into an MMO by successfully making a new hit game. Earthworm Jim 4? MDK 3? Come on guys... gotta do better.
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VaultDweller said on 3:02AM 11-09-2008
Well Skypp you have a part of your wish. Interplay signed Douglas TenNapel to a deal to let them re-release Earthworm Jim games but also they are going to having him working on Earthworm Jim 4.
Here is the news from interplay itself : http://interplay.com/about/article.php?id=23
As Three Dog would say "They are Fighting the Good Fight!"
Skypp said on 1:31PM 11-09-2008
That was actually sarcasm there on my part. I read they were doing those old franchises and wasn't very impressed by the choice. How many Earthworm Jim games have been failures or cancels? Heh. Not a good foot to put through the door with a new team IMO.
Daedren said on 2:06PM 11-06-2008
@David Fisher:
I agree that MMO market economics are a bit fishy. (Pun intended!) -- And your WoW subscription argument makes sense, though the numbers need a bit of tweaking.
Using the 11 Million WoW subscriber numbers, you have to keep in mind that over 6 Million of those are Asian subscribers. The asian market doesnt use the normal 15USD a month format, they use "time cards" - which are similar to cell phone time cards - so the average USD in per month is actually much lower due to this (along with other things like the 11M number being the total number of WoW accounts ever made).
In regards to raising the money, it's hard for Interplay because of the company track record. In my opinion, it won't happen.
Oh, and ZeniMax, aka Bethesda? Plenty of money. They already have 300M + USD (last I heard) for ES5 and this "unannounced MMO project". I should have included that.
Cheers,
Daedren
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NeuroMan42 said on 10:15PM 11-06-2008
I agree... with the above comments. Just let Bethesda have full rights or even merge with them. Interplay I loved ya in the past but you died for a reason.
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ScytheNoire said on 11:19PM 11-06-2008
Interplay making a Fallout MMO, as much of a fan of the Fallout world as I am, didn't see a bright future for it.
Bethesda though owning the rights to do it, has a big world of possibility and I'd be interested in it.
But Bethesda has never made one, and do they want that type of commitment? Just because they make a good single player game doesn't mean they can make a good MMO. But they are great at creating world's to explore, and so I'd love to see them try.
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blanktarget said on 1:39PM 11-07-2008
A fallout mmo would be interesting considering, as far as I know, it'd be the first to be set in a futuristic version of our own world. Fallout 3 takes place in DC! To make an mmo you'd have to have many other real life locals. That'd be tough I think. Would you jump from map to map for certain cities? It couldn't be seemless in the way blizzard did wow for travel.
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