Warhammer holds its ground with 300k subs
by Brooke Pilley 
May 6th 2009 at 8:00PM
Filed under: Fantasy, Warhammer Online, News items
Three hundred thousand players is actually a pretty good number these days. In fact, CCP was extremely happy to announce hitting the 300k+ mark today, on EVE's 6th birthday. Most MMO analysts would probably say WAR is one of the top 5 subscription MMOs in Europe/North America.
On the other hand, EA and Mythic can't be too happy about the current population situation since Mark Jacobs has made a couple famous remarks about population numbers in the past. The first is that WAR would be successful if it had north of 500k subscribers. The second is that 250k subscribers doesn't look too good to investors when you've made an initial investment of over $50M and have high maintenance costs. You might also want to factor in that Mythic started a recruit-a-friend program, free trial, and launched in Russia all during the period of the quarter being reported on.
With Aion set for release in fall 2009, WAR may soon face some stiff competition on the PvP/RvR front. A lot may be riding on Mythic's new live expansion, The Land of the Dead set for release this summer.
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
MrGutts said on 8:11PM 5-06-2009
"You might also want to factor in that Mythic started a recruit-a-friend program, free trial, and launched in Russia all during the period of the quarter being reported on."
Don't forget that whole fiasco with the Call to Arms and the 10 day thing. Did they count those numbers also?
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Skuz said on 8:24PM 5-06-2009
The game is a good game in many respects but it has a couple of severe design & performance flaws.
The game is slowly bleeding numbers, which the trial helped mitigate, but I personally think the major reason they have currently only a slow decline is the fact there isn't much new competition around right now, once the other AAA MMO's that are in development start to hit the market I fear that the game will suffer pretty badly, all depends what the devs can achieve in turning the game around between now & then, & just how good the competition shapes up to be.
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Pedro said on 8:35PM 5-06-2009
Glad that they managed to stop the bleeding.
Many people will point out that with all the promotions and the launch in Russia these numbers represent a failure because the subs didn't increase but with the issues the game has with server performance/stability, animations (that have gotten better over time but still need to vastly improve) and the endgame it is a great victory to have managed to sustain the 300k subs.
And lets not mention the fact that there were a vast number of people eagerly waiting for worse numbers to predict the death of this game.
Well, guess what: IT AINT GONNA HAPPEN!!
They stoped the bleeding and if they fix the issues i mentioned there's a strong probability that they will follow the upwards trend we are seeing today with AoC.
Now lets just wait for all the haters these game has to creep in here to bash these numbers and try to spin them as negative.
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NT_ said on 8:42PM 5-06-2009
I think it's worth adding that Eve Online didn't *launch* with anything approaching that many subscribers or with a game (as also in the case of WoW) refined to the point that which players can enjoy today.
Imagine trying to not only succeed in a relative few locations but also license Papa John's restaurant franchises at a time when Pizza Hut and Domino's COMPLETELY dominated the (US) national pizza-delivery scene. And today, virtually no Americans in a town with a population over 15,000 will ask, "What is Papa John's?".
CCP has turned that kind of imagination into reality. Do you think EA-lovechild Mythic can do the same?
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Brendan Drain said on 11:33PM 5-06-2009
EVE Online has interestingly had a very nice growth pattern. The initial launch netted under 20,000 subscribers, rising to only 50,000 within the first year and hovering about that figure for a while. Since then, however, EVE has had an impressive a steady increase, reaching just over 300,000 now.
The interesting part of that is that it seems many developers don't understand how MMO subscriber numbers work. You have an initial surge at launch but few MMOs hold onto those players. The real test of an MMO is whether subscriber numbers continue to fall or if they grow. EVE Online has grown organically from that initial 20,000 subs to 300,000 but because it's consistently growing, it's in a much better position than WAR with the same number of subs. Launch numbers aren't important, in the long term (which I'd bloody hope every MMO company is concerned with) what matters is whether the active subscription numbers are being sustained and if they're increasing or decreasing. In that respect, just stating a figure of 300k like this for WAR's sub numbers is no real indicator of how the game is performing. The sad part is that investors don't understand that either and it's their money on the line.
Mark Jacobs has a whole slew of famous quotes now backfiring on him, such as the quote on server merges. There was this assumption that server merges were an indicator that an MMO was failing but no well-advertised MMO is going to retain 100% of its launch players. Heavy advertising draws in more players for the launch but those players may not all stay. Server merges should have been a predicted and naturally accepted part of the game's post-launch life cycle.
CCon99 said on 8:43PM 5-06-2009
I'm sure the month they added the Choppa and Slayer classes to the game saw a small spike of returning players. Even if they only returned for 1 month, their numbers help the overall numbers for that quarter.
It's rather sad to think back and realize not even 8 months ago this game had over 750k subscribers.
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LaughingTarget said on 8:46PM 5-06-2009
I've recently let my subscription lapse. Maybe it's just the whole MMO scene in general, but it just got boring. But, then again, it probably had something to do with my brother quitting for work related reasons, I lost a competent healer and just didn't feel like playing anymore.
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Merckx said on 8:52PM 5-06-2009
I wonder at what point Mythic/EA start making a profit? Has it all ready happened? Did they recoup development cost from box sales alone? Anyone want to make a guess at what the development cost would be on an AAA tile like WAR?
Anyways grats to WAR. I hope they have turned the corner and good things are a head for them and their players.
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Digest said on 11:19PM 5-06-2009
WAR's not good and its going to bleed to death when upcoming mmo's arrive. That will be the final blow for them. A reality check for them , they thought they can even compete with huge numbers against current mmo games.
I say WAR is pure hype just like Mark Jacobs. People who likes to keep talking are the ones who ended like a frustrated prophet. Why not deliver, execute then brag about it if its a click. Epic Failed.
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Brawler said on 11:44PM 5-06-2009
You said it perfectly digest. WAR's barely a an "okay" game. The fact is it's not that good (id say it's even worse then AoC after playing their recent trial) has reflected itself in their poor subscription numbers. The game was WAY hyped and they spent tons but the game failed to deliver. Hell, the game failed to deliver before it was even released when they decided to cut like half the cities/classes to be added in future updates.
It's hilarious that CCP has probably spent a small fraction over a longer amount of time on Eve in comparison to EA's WoW killer.
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Goonja said on 11:58PM 5-06-2009
CCP's 300K sub is a success but I see Mythic 300K as a failure in the whole.When EvE was launced 6 years ago,it was sold as a sandbox MMO and CCP has been true to their vision even when WoW hit the market,even when everyone else was trying to emulate WoW success and we all know what happened to them.
WAR was sold as AAA mmo which end up as a B mmo.Mythic has used almost all the marketing they can to boost up the subs but the result is the same as was the last report.I don`t think Mythic stopped the bleeding,it's just that a lot of players are not playing and is simply waiting for their subs to end.
Reality check : Mythic will take a severe hit when Aion hits the market.NCsoft has made sure to have a game which runs smooth,scalable beautiful world+ server stability(chinese & Korean Server) top notch animations + open massive pvp world aka the Abyss + good PvPvE
Aion has all that WAR playerbase has been asking from day one and one of them is Server stability.Mythic has been unable to fix this request after 8 months being live.They have 5 months to fix their game before the Exodus began.
I will risk myself in saying that by the end of 2010 WAR will be like Vanguard if EA has not pulled the plug by then.
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Poxus said on 12:20AM 5-07-2009
I like all this "When Aion Launches, WAR will die " talk....reminds me of what was being said would happen to WoW when WAr was getting ready to launch.
Face it....no other game is going to kill off another game...it doesn't happen. WoW didn't kill EQ because it is still going. WAR might lose players but from the amount of new players I am seeing joining and loving the game right now...I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon.
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Goonja said on 3:08AM 5-07-2009
Poxus,I have not said that Aion will kill WAR,Mythic is killing its own game by not listening to its player base,they've been doing so since beta.
The game has a flawed core design + lame PvE + server stability.This game main selling point isT4 Open RvR which is the main frustration and cause for people leaving the game.
Aion is the only PvP fantasy game to be released Q4 2009 and I`m not taking into consideration games like Champion Online/jumpgate Evolution (which will grab a part of the market if they are successful).2010-2011 will be the years of other new gen mmo.NCsoft has 3 mmos plan for the next 3 years.GW2 is coming next year,38studios will start showing their babies,The Old Republic will be the next big thing,Blizzard campaign for D3 start showing its head and may be their upcoming MMO.
All these companies has learned that releasing half- ass product is synonym to epic fail,so my guess is,they will make sure that their game works just like NC soft is doing with Aion.
Mythic needs to fix his game now instead of throwing new content or whatso ever and consolidate his game.Then they will be able to bring back those who loved the game but left for obvious reasons.From there they can expand with a solid player base(400-600K),when others will be starting from scratch.
A friend of mine asked me,if I think Mythic still got the talent?Honestly,I don`t know but what I`m sure is,they've missed the starting gun :(
torak said on 12:39AM 5-07-2009
300k is very good for a western, subscription based MMO. I'm not 100% sure but I don't think LotR broke that and if they did, it's close after years.Years ago when EQ was king of the hill and everyone was googoo for it, it had around that number of players. In fact, hardly any western, subscription based MMO has breached and maintained over 300k subs.
WAR is settling in now and should probably be pretty good for awhile.
Like any and all MMO's, yes of course it will eventually bleed away. Its just a matter of how long they can hold that day off. It's the fate of all games in this market. Bleed off until just a hard core few remain. Only WoW defies that but that game is a genre unto itself.
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Jess said on 4:03AM 5-07-2009
No one knows lotro's subscriber numbers. They could be 20,000 or a million and we wouldn't know. Turbine refuses to release numbers so I'm not sure how you know LOTRO didn't hit 300k subs, unless of course you worked for Turbine or something.
David Whyld said on 2:06PM 5-07-2009
So much for all the people who predicted this was going to give World of Warcraft a run for its money.
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Fess said on 2:31AM 5-07-2009
The problem with WAR, is that it hinges solely on having other people playing. I know that sounds odd, in reference to an MMO, but it's true. It's simply not fun unless you have tons of other players to group with to fight tons of enemy players. Unlike WoW, you can't log into WAR and just find something interesting to do if not that many others are on at that particular time. The crafting in WAR sucks, the PVE portion sucks, and hell, even the PVP is somewhat lackluster, since it's all a big game of ring-around-the-keeps. Logging into WAR during non-peak hours is essentially pointless. Just standing around waiting for something...anything to do gets old quick. Something else I've noticed...even the social aspect of the game is sorely lacking. Socialization on Destro side seems better, but still, it just seems like a huge number of mostly silent players, that speak only to bitch about something. All in all, WAR is about as immersive and fun as watching my lawn grow.
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Sam said on 3:13AM 5-07-2009
I'm finding much the same thing. I'm duo'ing the levelling process with a friend at the moment, which provides a bit more fun, but once we both hit 40...I'm not sure i'll continue playing WAR in it's current state.
Bossy said on 3:10AM 5-07-2009
reality check;
The 300 K are not even .... subscribers.
Take the "official sentence":
"The most recent info on Warhammer Online puts the game's dedicated player base at 300,000. "
That's "players" NO doubt they included the free trial period players. That launched in the last 2 weeks of March.
Also: "most recent info". Curious no date or check point.
Do you wanna know why?
See www.xfire.com and go for warhammer.
The average number of Xfire people now is ... 2700, while at Xmas it was 5500, while at launch it was 15000 ...
Now Xfire is 250.000 PC players on line. That's an awesome sampling base.
EA is NOT lying by using :
"The most recent info on Warhammer Online puts the game's dedicated player base at 300,000. "
BUT they are not telling the truth either.
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Lux said on 4:22AM 5-07-2009
I'm pretty sure that DEDICATED player base does not include trials. Dedicated means monthly paying subs.