How much is riding on City of Heroes: Going Rogue?
by Eliot Lefebvre 
Nov 2nd 2009 at 8:00PM
Filed under: Super-hero, City of Heroes, City of Villains, Business models, Expansions, MMO industry, Opinion
At the six-year mark, City of Heroes is still moving forward, with City of Heroes: Going Rogue targeted for release in the second quarter of 2010. It's certainly not the oldest game to receive an expansion, but Vicarious Existence has an interesting point to be made: exactly how much is riding on the success of this expansion? In true heroic sense, it may well be the fate of NCsoft West and of NCsoft's entire western presence in the market.
It's no secret that NCsoft West has had a difficult time in the market, with the first rumbles having been made clear with the sad tale of Auto Assault. And it's hardly necessary to dredge up painful memories about the games that have also gone the way of the dodo. But as the post points out, there's not nearly as much revenue coming in from the western branch of the company as they'd like, even with the success Aion has been having in the marketplace. (If that sounds cynical or as if it's expecting too much money, Adam Martin has an excellent explanation of why NCsoft could and would be so draconic about profits.) To be fair, the post is a bit alarmist, but it does posit that there could be a great deal of trouble on the horizon for City of Heroes -- and perhaps the whole studio -- based on the performance of the expansion. And even if the idle speculation is wrong, it certainly does put you in the right mood for the expansion, doesn't it?
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
d.hutch said on 8:10PM 11-02-2009
Personally I don't think that City of Heroes is in as difficult a position as the author implies. For months now folks have gone on about how Champions Online would be the end of CoH... well, last weekend there didn't seem to be any lack of population, and for the whole weekend CO was FREE! If anything it might say more about CO's situation, and the fact that a 5+ year old game has more appeal to many folks than a shiny brand new game on its free promotional weekend. I'm happy to have the competition, because the developers know now that if they slack off there is someone ready to eat their lunch. Going Rogue sounds better and better the more we hear about it... I for one, think it bodes well for CoH's future.
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Arrow-Pop said on 1:58AM 11-03-2009
@d.hutch
I agree. I really tried to like Champions Online but it's just a disaster IMHO. I've totally given up on it.
Right now I'm taking a break from CoH while i gear up to play MW2 & L4D2 for a couple months. I'll be back in time for the Holiday Event they throw every year; skiing down the mountain hovering outside Pocket D.
I'm eagerly awaiting Going Rogue so i can have some new adventures.
Especially if they update the graphics a little (even though they're still better than CO's by a lightyear; CO's gfx make my eyes burn).
Psychotic Storm said on 3:52AM 11-03-2009
first of all, you are missing the entire point of the writers article, second, both games can coexist and thrive together, they cater different people and both can have their loyal fanbase, stop this mentality that this mmo will kill this mmo because, its false and stagnates the genre.
The article is about how unsafe are NCSoft games from NCSoft and partially explains the TR tragedy, NCSoft does not care about a games performance or even if it can sustain itself, it only cares about huge profit, so games are not judged in the merit of if they can sustain themselves, but on the merit of "if the money I give give more investment when in the bank or not".
This alone makes any and all NCSoft titles unsafe and impossible to predict, yes CoH might be thriving under players eyes and suddenly the plug be pulled just because NCSoft decided its better to put the money in the bank and collect investment instead.
That mentality will give short term money, but makes NCSofts reputation worse and worse.
Halldorr said on 8:33PM 11-02-2009
I was one of those that was claiming CO would give CoH a hard time...and I can admit I was wrong. The Mission Architect is a fantastic addition to the game and the upcoming expansion is adding a great graphics upgrade which is overdue imho. I'm currently debating checking out CoH again, EVE again, or giving Vanguard a chance and with the upcoming expansion, CoH is looking fine.
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CCon99 said on 8:50PM 11-02-2009
It's pretty amazing that CoX is still going pretty darn strong after almost 6 years. Unlike WAR, AoC, SWG, and many many others, CoX is a game that hasn't had a single server shut down or forced server mergers. The timing of their expansion pack seems to be in a good window as well, CO will likely be long stale and Comic gamers will likely be looking for something fresh.
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Bezza said on 1:44AM 11-03-2009
Hmmm... I really don't know if I would say CoX is going strong? More like after the release of CO it is clear that CoX is still going.
A lot of people seemed to assume CO would shut down CoX, which is a pretty overzelous and dramatic claim. Has any MMO ever "shut down" another MMO in the history of the genre? I doubt it. I believe that the impact of CO on CoX rather, has been over stated by CoX naysayers and CO fanboys. Now lets not suggest that CO wont have 'some' impact on CoX. Positive and negative I would suggest. Many CoX players might try CO and decide they prefer the game they know and thus return to CoX with renewed vigor. More may play CO and enjoy it, but like any semi-intelligent person, they will understand that any new MMO is an unfinished MMO. Thus they may retain CoX as a fall back.
There are no doubt those who have made the switch, but they can -and will- return to CoX if and when it suits them.
I have heard many negative comments about the architect expansion from non-guild (supergroup) players who say as a result of the architect expansion most of the city maps are devoid of players. But those in guilds are happy as it directly benefits them.
Personally, I believe it will take more than a graphical upgrade to gain the response NCsoft need/wants. Current subscribers will be most pleased with the upgrade as the maps in CoX are very tired and show their age. Will this will be enough to boost the games profile and bring in new subscribers? I suspect it will, but not to the desired numbers NCsoft are hoping for. I for one will dust off my toons and take a look at it when the time comes. In the mean time I expect CO will also be busy filling out content.
Psychotic Storm said on 4:05AM 11-03-2009
I will agree with Bezza CO or any other MMO cannot kill any other MMO and so on, if nothing else on the same merit that people were crying that Aion would kill CO why not kill CoH instead or together with CO? because its under the same company? laughable excuse.
I believe the impact CO had in CoH is the intresting additions the later had the past months, they might have been scheduled for months, but their release days is strangely tied up with CO, so it should be classified as a positive impact, it makes CoH to act, same thing I am expecting from CO, as long as there are competitors there will be action, as they say, competition makes progression possible.
Cinnamoon said on 11:47AM 11-03-2009
The fact that a company hasn't shut down servers doesn't necessarily mean they shouldn't be shut down for the good of the playerbase; and the fact that a company has offered free transfers off of servers doesn't necessarily mean it's doing poorly. In fact, last year there was a lot of talk from the CoH devs about shutting down servers and/or setting up a Guild Wars-esque system for traveling between servers. Ultimately all of that was scrapped, in favor of cheap paid transfers and fast leveling. Why transfer when you can reroll pretty painlessly, and even sneak your money to a new server through Went's or the BM? And that's exactly what people do, and why only two CoH servers are highly populated these days.
I love CoH, but I won't pretend that they haven't had population problems for years, just because their devs refuse to address those problems, as Sony did with SWG, or EA did with WAR. It takes a lot more gumption and care to save a game even at the risk of bad press than it does to neglect it.
InfamousBrad said on 9:00PM 11-02-2009
I agree with his conclusion, for an even easier to explain reason. City of Heroes was profitable with a development staff of 15. (Sliding slowly and steadily down the drain, but profitable.) Is it still profitable with a development staff of 50? My gut instinct is: not without a substantial increase in subscriptions. And NCsoft, suspiciously, has stopped releasing quarterly subscription numbers for City of Heroes. There are poorly-sourced rumors that numbers went up for the first time in a long time when they released player-created missions. Will they go up again when they add shades-of-gray moral complexity missions and side switching? I hope so.
My own scientific wild _____ guess is that NCsoft has bet a ton of money that, with proper reinvestment, City of Heroes could become at least a half-million subscriber game, which is what they need it to be. If it doesn't? Then I wouldn't give a plugged nickel for the job security of those last 35 people hired, at the very least, and wouldn't make any bets on the long-term survival of the game. Which would be a shame. It has its flaws, but hands-down it's got the best game mechanics and the best mission designs of any MMO on the market today, and even after five to six years, it's still a heck of a lot of fun to play.
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Wjowski said on 9:48PM 11-02-2009
...Apparently while there can be 5000+ generica fantasy MMOs on the market, there can only ever be one superhero MMO at a time.
This logical and science.
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-Drexel- said on 9:53PM 11-02-2009
It's not all that surprising really. I personally think CO is the superior game if you were comparing CoH now with CO 5 years from now. It's hard to make an apples to apples comparison when one title has 5 years of development (and the money that comes with 5 years of subscriptions) and the other just launched.
The bigger issue is NC soft. With AA, Tabula Rasa and now Dungeon Runners I am begining to think the NC in NC soft stands for "No Commitment".
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Snowyjoe said on 12:41AM 11-03-2009
No matter what I believe CoH (i always confuse that with Company of Heroes :p) will always have a committed player base that will still subscribe to it.
I don't think this game would ever "die" but it would all probably depend on NCsoft.
AA, TR and DR all had a commited fan base, and they were not "bad games" they just didn't fit with the mainstream audience of Fantasy + RPG.
With Aion out now, and GW2 to come.... it might be a matter of time when NCsoft will pull the plug on CoH to focus more on their "bigger" titles.
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Anjohl said on 1:03AM 11-03-2009
SCREW Ncsoft, they deserve everything they get, and MORE.
FIRST they kill Auto Assault, even REJECTING a very fair offer from a fan-created group to BUY the rights to the game, THEN they kill Tabula Rasa after essentially pushing Garriot out (Hope the suit goes well RG!), and now they put all their eggs on a ho-hum JMMO. Good riddance.
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Amana said on 7:34AM 11-03-2009
This ^^
And I just want someone to pick up TR when they (hopefully) lose the right to keep it on a shelf gathering dust; you don't know what you've got til it's gone.. :S
Amana said on 7:40AM 11-03-2009
./cry
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcqHw1pzD3Y
Anjohl said on 2:54PM 11-03-2009
Maybe Garriot will win the rights in his lawsuit..
JP said on 9:45AM 11-03-2009
blah blah blah coexisting games... whatever.
CoH's livelihood was deeply dependent on CO's popularity. Being that CO isn't the game that caused a mass exodus from CoH the prosperity of CoH got a little easier.
That said, NCsoft I think is making a large reinvestment to CoH, but they can't (well... it is NCcrooks we're talking about) be delusional and think that they'll attract that many new players. CoH probably will garner the most attention when/if they decide to make a stand alone sequel. Until then, even w/ the fantastic additions of the MA and what looks great in GR, its still a 6 year old game and a sub base over 200K would be phenomenal for them. They’ve teetered at the 100-130K range for years now.
Now, how well will it hold up vs DCUO? I guess that’ll come out early 2011.
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Psychotic Storm said on 10:06AM 11-03-2009
I think you are getting paranoid, but it explains why you attack CO in every topic.
CoH life isn't dependant in CO popularity, I wouldn't touch CoH for my own reasons, it been from NCSoft and its graphics are two of them. On the other hand I love CO, again for my own reasons, I am not much into superhero genre (as oxymoron as it may sound) but I really do appreciate that I can build whatever I imagined and play with it, each game can appeal to different target audience and both can coexist, hell for one people love or hate CO for its "comic style" graphics.
If you feel that the existence of another MMO in the same genre is enough to trigger a "mass exodus" from your favourite MMO, you really should re-evaluate why you play it, because it looks like you are not entirely sure about its solid foundations.
JP said on 11:15AM 11-03-2009
Oh, what a surprise. PS trolling my posts. I need to get a restraining order against you. You’re like a poodle on meth.
If you don’t see how CO’s direct competition effects COH, you’re dumber or more purposefully ignorant that I thought. CO was on the minds of the developers and the marketing department of Paragon Studios, and its potential success weighed heavy on their next moves. It’s what happens in the business world, kiddo. Fortunately for Paragon Studios, CO isn’t a real factor as it failed to embrace many CoH players… many players period… and now is in no position to usurp CoH’s spot as the most populated super hero mmog. Now, they just have to move forward and worry about DCUO. But, while Cryptic was working on the foundations of CO (Marvel MMO deal) while still in possession of CoH’s IP and funding a 15 man crew, that’ not the case w/ DCUO and CoH can forge forward with much more stability and resources.
Psychotic Storm said on 11:30AM 11-03-2009
Its a nice change of pace, you usually troll mine :p
The fact that you insult me and I do not continues thought.....
You come in on an article that discusses how unreliable NCSoft is in holding games and how its games are more at risk from NCSoft itself than any other competitor to troll about CO success, not really relevant.
sorry if your insecurity makes you feel that way, but games can coexist and their interaction is in many ways, levels and depths that X game will steal X subscribers from our game and so on, how I feel CO influenced CoH is stated above (in a positive for the player base way if you need the really short resume) and I expect it to affect CO the same way, competition drives the things forward and all that.
Back on topic, I am afraid that the article is right and CoH is in more peril from NCSoft than anyone else, they do not seem to grasp the concept of MMO and are unwilling to keep MMOs that just survive and not meet their (usually outrageous) standards, any MMO is at better hands than in NCSofts hands because, when the developers do not have way too much money, they try to make the game better and keep it alive, it will recover from a bad launch and steadily work its way up, with NCSoft it will just die and something else will pop up.