Massively^™

If you missed it, prior to heading in the direction of E3 we joined Joystiq and the other network sites in pulling together a predictive Bingo card for the big event. We jotted down a number of things that we thought for sure would make an appearance, and laid out a number of news tidbits that we were almost sure wouldn't get covered at the event. As it turns out, we did okay despite some major upsets.

We'll own up – this was a pretty different event from a lot of others. Concepts and games we were sure would get talked up didn't get mentioned, while some out-of-left field announcements hit during the week. Read on below the cut to see how we faired from A to ... well, F.

Every year it's customary to roll out predictions on what will and won't show up at the current year's E3 event. With Massively heading in the direction of the LA Convention Center already, we thought it might be fun to offer up some likely (and highly unlikely) predictions of what might get talked about next week. In reality, this is sort of a "future of the MMO industry list" as everything on here is more-or-less a current or upcoming trend. The only question is whether any given item will get discussed next week.

Each of those nice images is a link, which will take you into our E3 Predictions Gallery. Don't know who Carbine or Red 5 are? Not sure about Copernicus? If you don't understand one of our bingo squares, be sure to dig down and find out what all the fuss is about. We'll be bringing you all the MMO dirt you can stand next week, so hopefully this will tide you over until then. Enjoy!

A study released by Gartner, a large research firm based in Connecticut, claims that 90% of all "business forays into virtual worlds" fail within 18 months.

According to the study, most businesses focus too much on expensive and unnecessary technology such as powerful physics engines, and don't pay enough attention to the demands and interests of users actual or potential. This is not surprising to us; savvy MMO developers will talk your ear off about how multi-million dollar graphics are at best a red herring and at worst a harbinger of doom.

On the other hand, the study also said that by 2012, 70% of all organizations will be using virtual worlds, and that those endeavors will more successful because businesses will have learned exactly what to expect and will plan development accordingly.

[Via Worlds in Motion]

Multiverse's Corey Bridges spoke at the SXSW conference about the effects digital distribution and the democratization of advanced development tools will have on the industries of gaming, social networks, and virtual worlds.

Gamasutra put together a great summary of the talk. The thesis: just as they are stripping the entrenched establishments of the music and film industries of much of their oligarchical power, new technologies will transform online gaming and virtual worlds. According to Bridges, virtual worlds are just getting started. "WoW is not a fad," he said, "it's a harbinger." Furthermore, the virtual worlds will be in the hands of indies, not the major conglomerates, and they'll be synergized with social networks.

Bridges also touched on the notion of a more splintered industry made up of smaller projects catering to lots of niche tastes, as opposed to the huge Hollywood-budget productions we see today. A while back someone said that it would take at least a $1 billion super project to take on World of Warcraft. But maybe, as it was with the Roman Empire, the wolves at Blizzard's gate will be countless smaller tribes made up of the so-called unwashed hordes.

Almost all gaming sites this time of year weigh in with their predictions for what the new year will bring, but I particularly like what TenTonHammer has seen in their crystal ball. Plus, I just like saying "Ten Ton drops the Hammer." It's fun. Try it.

A few of their eight predictions hit close to home with me. In particular, their first prophecy regarding Jumpgate Evolution. I was a huge fan of NetDevil's now defunct MMO, Auto Assault. Not because their shop is only an hour north of me here in Colorado, or that I seemingly enjoy virtually everything NCsoft puts out, but because it was as close to a Mad Max movie as there was. I'm a post apocalyptic junkie. Sadly... it went the way of the Cuban Missile Crisis and died enigmatically. So I can't wait to see how they update their cult sci-fi game, and... well, see how it jumps out of the gate! Oy.

Next up, they forecast that Cryptic Studios will at long last release some information about Marvel Universe Online. If I was a gambler I might bet against this, but stranger things have happened. As an obsessed City of Heroes player (and confirmed alt-aholic), my love of the game grew from my passion for comic books. In particular, Marvel comic books. I want to see what the creators of my favorite spandex covered game can do with yet another spandex covered game that's different from the first one, and how are they going to get me to play that one just as much as this one. Confused? So is Britney, but she's doing fine. Sort of.

Anyway, be sure to check out Hammer's other prognostications and let us know what you think 2008 holds for this oh so massive industry!

The past year was a big one for Tabula Rasa and all who call it a virtual home. While most players only had a scant two months to enjoy the worlds that Richard Garriott and company created, the news came thick, and the time was exceedingly well spent. And Massively has been there from the beginning. From the end of beta event to the 24 hours of Tabula Rasa contests, from our visit to the NCsoft office to Richard Garriott's lecture at George Washington University, we've been all over Tabula Rasa like white on rice, and we plan to keep it that way.

Having said that, we have a few things we're looking forward to from the Destination Games crew for the year 2008, from the more mundane to the potentially fantastic. As much as we enjoy blasting the Bane in the game's current state, if we had our way, this wish list would be on the public test realm tomorrow.

I generally speaking suck at predictions, but there are some for Second Life that it will be interesting to see what comes through. I'm going to divide them into the technical, the social, competition and the external "big users" categories, basically because that is how they occurred to me.

This is obviously going to be quite long, so read on under the fold.

It's that time of year again-- before 2008 starts, everyone and their brother is going to throw out some predictions about what will happen with MMOs this year. So here's a Massively roundup, and a little meta-analysis of what might happen in this Year of the Potato.

• Let's start with our own Zenke-- he says Wrath won't make it out in 2008, The Agency and Warhammer will hit big, and Dark Age of Camelot and Vanguard are on their way out. He's also got Tabula Rasa sticking it out for the year, and claims that a major MMO (Age of Conan?) will be delayed past 2008.
  
• Ancient Gaming Noob is next: he also says Wrath is shipping late, but goes against popular notions to say that Star Trek Online will be released to cheers from fans on all sides. He also says the biggest story of the year will be Age of Conan's "titties," and that will throw a scare into the "adult" MMO market. He also says, tongue firmly planted in cheek, that Bioware is not actually making an MMO, and the announcement of that will "only spur greater excitement and speculation as to what kind of MMO BioWare is making." Funny.
  
• Keen of Keen and Graev expects Warhammer to go gangbusters, but also says Funcom will have trouble with the nudity in AoC, causing them to patch it out. He has Wrath "bombing," but at least he thinks it'll make it out.
  

Lots more predictions for 2008 (including our own) after the jump.

Linden Lab's departed CTO and co-founder will be spending the (USA) Spring as a visiting professor at USC Annenberg, according to New World Notes, and Ondrejka's new personal blog Collapsing Geography.

According to Ondrejka, "I'm now consulting, writing, and speaking about the economic and technological impact of virtual worlds; the interrelation between innovation and learning; and, the requirements of product development across geographically dispersed teams," at least until he figures out what he's going to do next.

In late October there was a meeting in London called the Virtual Worlds Forum. Although a lot of what they talked about was, perhaps inevitably, Second Life they also had discussions about coming trends, events, and worlds.

I'm not sure I want to imagine the forum, but one person's top 20 things for 2008, can be found in Tech Digest. For those of you who don't like reading about Second Life - the good news is that Second Life won't be the only virtual world we're talking about - the bad news is that there will more for us to talk about in a range of worlds!

The top three predictions, in case you don't want to see the whole list are:

1. There will be loads of new worlds launched next year;
2. Teen worlds are huge and will continue to be so;
3. Big brand names still need to learn how to handle virtual worlds.

The whole article is well worth a read though.

Former Blizzard producer Bill Roper described the early days of World of Warcraft's development to CVG, saying, "we were hoping we'd be able to sell a million copies of the game." He pointed out that at the time, EverQuest was the gold standard for MMOs, and it only had 500,000 subscribers. "It would have been impossible to predict that World of Warcraft would take off as a cultural phenomenon as it did," he said.

He's right; people knew World of Warcraft would be a comparatively big deal, but how could they have predicted 9.3 million players? Throughout the history of persistent world online games, we've been surprised again and again at just how large the market for them can be. There are studios out there who think they can take it even further -- BioWare, for instance. Or maybe the industry will fragment into niche games now. The point is, you can't always predict this stuff. That's what makes it so exciting.

In case you were wondering what Roper is up to now, his company Flagship Studios recently released Hellgate: London -- more of a niche title than a mainstream record-buster. Flagship is also working on Mythos, a Diablo-esque-dungeon-crawler.